30 Jul
It is very sad, that last part. It means radical Republicans have succeeded in scaring the shit out of a lot of old people. Nice work.
The poll also took a closer look at the views of seniors since they are often assumed to have a uniform view about issues. Below are some of the poll’s key findings about seniors’ views:?
While seniors’ views of the new law are more negative than those of their younger counterparts, they remain roughly split about the law with 46 percent of seniors holding an unfavorable view of the law and 38 percent holding a favorable one. While 35 percent of seniors think they will be worse off under reform, a greater share (57%) say they will be better off (20%) or it will make no difference (37%).
Seniors’ awareness about the specific provisions of the health reform law that affect Medicare is mixed. For example, about half are aware that the new law will result in premium increases for some higher income Medicare beneficiaries (52%) and gradually close Medicare’s “doughnut hole” (50%). However, just a third (33% ) know the law will eliminate Medicare’s co-pays and deductibles for some preventive services.?
On the other hand, large shares of seniors mistakenly believe the law includes provisions that cut some previously universal Medicare benefits and creates “death panels.” Half of seniors (50%) say the law will cut benefits that were previously provided to all people on Medicare, and more than a third (36%) incorrectly believe the law will “allow a government panel to make decisions about end-of-life care for people on Medicare.”
Despite the fact that Medicare’s actuaries predict the health reform law will extend the life of the Medicare Part A Trust Fund by 12 years (from 2017 to 2029), only 14 percent of seniors know this and nearly half (45%) of seniors think the health reform law will weaken the financial condition of the fund.?
23 Jul
The American people are smarter than we sometimes think.
“According to a new poll, American voters say that reducing unemployment is more important than cutting the federal budget deficit, taking the Democratic side in what is expected to be an ongoing debate in this midterm election year.
By a ratio of better than 2-to-1 — 64% to 30% — the poll respondents said that reducing employment is the priority, according to the Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. The national unemployment rate is about 9.5%.” …
“The economy is usually the main national issue in any election and is expected to be so again this year as Republicans seek to wrest control of Congress from the Democrats. The GOP has been arguing that controlling the deficit is the most important fiscal issue, while Democrats have pushed helping the unemployed by extending jobless benefits.
The new poll raises some questions about the GOP strategy. By 58% to 38%, even Republican respondents said that reducing unemployment is more important.” …
“The good news for Democrats, however, is that poll respondents seem to accept a key party argument that the Republican Bush administration is to blame for the recession. A 53%-25% majority blame former President George W. Bush more than Obama for the current economic conditions, according to the poll.”
Los Angeles Times
16 Jul
The President notched a favorable 31%-26% split between voters who believe his economic policies have helped and those who think they hurt, while nearly 80% believe the economy is stable or heading in the right direction. And despite the economic upheaval and political acrimony that have marked his term thus far, voters aren’t pining for Obama’s predecessor; they tapped Obama over George W. Bush by a 53%-33% margin. Nor are they convinced that Sarah Palin is up to the challenges of the Oval Office. Obama clobbered Palin, 55%-34%, in a hypothetical 2012 matchup that should have Democrats salivating.
Time Poll
29 Jun
Encouraging. I would have expected it to be closer to the usual 20% loony population. Birfers do go on about how mainstream they are, though. Poor babies.
A total of 13 percent of Americans said that Obama was born in Kenya, Indonesia or “someplace else outside the U.S.,” according to a new 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll released Monday.
Another 11 percent of Americans said they were unsure of the country in which Obama was born.
Concerns over the location of Obama’s birth have driven the so-called “birther” movement, a movement that asserts Obama may be constitutionally ineligible as president if he were not born a U.S. citizen.
Obama released his birth certificate some time ago, which shows that he was born in Honolulu, Hawaii, on August 4, 1961. Birthers complain that Obama should release his “long-form” birth certificate, and some Republican lawmakers, who deny that they’re birthers, have introduced legislation to require birth certificates from presidential candidates.
39 percent of those surveyed accurately named Hawaii as the birthplace of Obama, and 20 percent were unsure in which state the president was born. One percent said Kansas, where Obama spent some time in his youth, while three percent said he was born somewhere else in the United States.
The Hill
28 Jun
WASHINGTON — Most Americans approve of President Obama’s decision to oust Gen. Stanley McChrystal as commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and they support the White House timetable to begin withdrawing from the nation’s longest war next year.
In all, 58% back the plan to start pulling out U.S. troops in July 2011 and 38% oppose it.
So after a week in which Obama sacked one of the architects of his approach to Afghanistan, the strategy itself emerges unscathed and the president’s own ratings on the issue are positive. McChrystal landed in hot water after he and top aides were quoted in Rolling Stone magazine disparaging Obama, Vice President Biden and others. …
Fifty percent of those polled say Obama is doing a good or very good job in handling Afghanistan; 44% rate his performance as poor or very poor.
USA Today/Gallup
23 Jun
Almost half of Americans say the risks associated with offshore drilling are too great to justify oil exploration, while even more favor the temporary ban on deepwater offshore drilling.
Forty-nine percent of respondents in a New York Times/CBS News poll released Tuesday said the costs and risks associated with drilling for oil and natural gas in U.S. waters were too great, while 42 percent favored increased exploration.
By a larger margin, Americans as a whole backed President Barack Obama’s six-month ban on new oil drilling starts in deep waters.
Sixty-five percent of those surveyed said it was a good idea to halt new drilling until an investigation into the Gulf of Mexico oil spill could be completed, compared to 30 percent who said it was a bad idea.
The Hill
The government will appeal a federal judge’s ruling against the moratorium on new deepwater drilling.
18 Jun
One of the keys to the Republican midterm strategy is hammering away at an unpopular health care reform package signed into law in March. Of course, the plan — which includes GOP demands for a repeal of the entire law — only works if the Affordable Care Act is, in fact, unpopular.
There’s at least some evidence, however, that public attitudes are changing.
The patient is alive and kicking. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds public support for President Barack Obama’s new health care law has risen to its highest point.
The nation remains divided, with 45 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed to the president’s signature domestic accomplishment.
Still, the shift in public sentiment was significant. Opposition to the overhaul increased after Congress passed it in March. And last month, supporters were outnumbered 39 percent to 46 percent. But the latest survey found the strongest backing for the health care plan since the AP-GfK poll began asking in September.
The AP found some of the largest gains among men (support jumped 10 points, to 46%) and 30-49 year-olds (support jumped 14 points to 49%). Even among self-indentified Republicans, support for the new law doubled — from 8% to 17% — though clearly GOP voters are a long way from liking the ACA.
Washington Monthly
09 Jun
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll includes questions about the tea parties that have the nascent movement’s popularity slipping badly. Overall, since the last poll, the percentage of Americans who hold an unfavorable view of the movement has jumped from 39 percent to 50 percent. The leading edge of that has been a collapse in support from 18-29-year-olds. In March, they had a positive, 43-38 view of the tea parties. They’ve swung hard to a negative view, 27-60.
Dave Weigel
More good news:
Asked which party they trust to cope with the country’s main problems, voters opted for the Democrats by a 44-32 margin, with nearly 20 percent saying they trust neither party.
Sixty percent of those surveyed voiced dissatisfaction with policies offered by Republicans in Congress, while only 38 percent had favorable opinions.
Seattle Post-Intelligencer
07 Jun
I’ve never agreed with President Obama’s position on offshore drilling, so I am glad to see this change in public opinion. He will have to adjust his thinking if the trend in this CBS poll continues.
With oil continuing to stream into the Gulf, a majority of Americans – 51 percent — say the costs and risks of increased offshore drilling are too great, according to a new CBS News poll.
That’s ten points higher than one month ago and an increase of 23 points from a poll taken in August 2008, when Republican rallies regularly broke out in chants of “drill, baby, drill.”
In the new poll, 40 percent said they favor increased offshore drilling. That’s a drop of five points from last week and 22 points from August 2008.
03 Jun
Nate went from Daily Kos to his own site 538 and is now joining the New York Times. Nice trajectory in two years time.
The New York Times said Thursday that it would begin hosting the popular blog FiveThirtyEight and make its founder, Nate Silver, a regular contributor to the newspaper and the Sunday magazine.
Mr. Silver, a statistical wizard, became a bonafide media star during the last presidential election season for his political projections based on dissections of polling data. He retains all rights to FiveThirtyEight and will continue to run it himself, but “under the banner and auspices of NYTimes.com,” The Times said in a news release. The arrangement is similar to one The Times struck with the authors of the blog Freakonomics in 2007.
The Freakonomics blog appears in the Opinion section of NYTimes.com. FiveThirtyEight content will be incorporated in the politics section of NYTimes.com.
Along with his contributions to the newspaper and Sunday magazine, Mr. Silver will also work with the journalists and software developers who create interactive graphics for NYTimes.com.
“Nate won considerable recognition during the 2008 presidential campaign for his timely and prescient reports on the electoral races and on public opinion,” Bill Keller, the executive editor of The Times, said in a statement. “We look forward to his unique perspectives on statistics, covering a wide swath of issues relating to politics, culture and sports.”
New York Times
03 Jun
A new University of Washington poll found that many Tea Partiers believe “lesbians and gays have too much political power,” and that despite hating our new commie government, they want Medicare and Social Security to remain in place. The poll, conducted in May, surveyed 1,695 voters over the phone. 35 percent of those questioned “strongly” or “somewhat” support the Tea Party movement. So what else did the pollsters from UW find out? The Seattle Times spoke with University of Washington political science professor Matt Barreto, who told the paper:
“The data tells us this opposition and frustration with government is going hand in hand with a frustration and opposition to racial and ethnic minorities and gays and lesbians.”
Shocking! The poll asked questions about race, gay rights, and immigration. 88 percent of voters polled who said they support the Tea Party also support Arizona’s new racial profiling law. And 52 percent agreed with the statement, “compared to the size of their group, lesbians and gays have too much political power.” Damn straight! The underdog, grass roots Tea Party movement is under threat from growing numbers of gays, blacks and Mexicans, all of whom want to spoil White Culture for future generations of Americans. And there’s something even more sinister brewing inside the Obama White House—he’s spending your hard earned money on “the others”:
“The tea party movement is not just about small government or frustration. It’s (also) about a very specific frustration with government resources being used on minorities and gays and lesbians and people who are more diverse.”
Gawker
12 May
In the wake of the growing environmental disaster brought about by the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, Americans have turned far less supportive of increased drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coastline, according to a new CBS News survey.
Forty-six percent of Americans now say the support offshore drilling – a 16 point drop from the 64 percent who backed such drilling back in July of 2008, when “drill, baby, drill” was an oft-chanted Republican campaign slogan.
Forty-one percent, meanwhile, say the costs and risks of offshore drilling are too great – up from 28 percent in the summer of 2008.
The Obama administration ended the moratorium on new offshore drilling off some coastal areas prior to the collapse of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig site, though no new drilling had yet been authorized. It has vowed not to authorize new drilling until the cause of the Gulf leak is clear.
CBS News
Glad to hear it.
08 May
That’s kind of weird, but it may mean it just doesn’t matter to some people whether the president is born in the US or not.
Fourteen percent of Americans say without prompting that they think Barack Obama was born in another country, rising to one in five when those with no opinion are offered that as a possibility. But for many it’s not a firm belief and some appear not to hold it against him.
Among those inclined to think Obama was born abroad, half also say that’s their suspicion only, not a judgment based on solid evidence, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds. And perhaps surprisingly, about a third of so-called “birthers” nonetheless approve of Obama’s work in office and express a favorable opinion of him personally.
Those with no opinion were asked, “Is it your best guess that Obama was born in the United States, or in another country?” (The order of those phrases was rotated). That produced an additional 6 percent of Americans taking the “other country” option, for a total of 20 percent. The number saying he was born in the United States rose to 77 percent, with the remaining 3 percent still expressing no opinion.
The other-country group includes 9 percent of Americans who said, in a follow-up question, that they think there’s “been solid evidence” Obama was born in another country. The rest, 10 percent, called it their “suspicion only.” (This could reflect a phenomenon in which some people may answer polling questions with something other than literal intent rather, to express broader support for, or opposition to, an individual, group or policy.)
In addition to Obama disapprovers, people who are more apt than others to say Obama was born in another country include conservatives, Republicans, supporters of the Tea Party political movement (31 percent in each group), evangelical white Protestants (33 percent), and supporters of John McCain in 2008 (30 percent) all groups broadly critical of Obama.
There’s also an educational element, with people who haven’t gone beyond high school nearly twice as apt as those with postgraduate degrees to suggest Obama was born abroad.
ABC/Washington Post Poll
CBS/New York Times had a similar poll in April, which showed that belief about Obama’s birthplace has more to do with disapproval than evidence.
05 May
Teabaggers hate democracy. They just hate it.
Tea Party pushes 17th Amendment to the forefront
We bet you didn’t know that the 17th Amendment was such a hot-button issue this year.
The issue has already made its way into the races of at least two of the GOP’s top 10 House recruits, and one of them has already stumbled over it.
The 17th Amendment provides for direct election of U.S. senators, and it turns out it isn’t too popular in the Tea Party movement. It’s a strange issue to be taking a position on, but when the base calls for something, it’s hard to say no.
The Hill
Here is the 17th Amendment, which gave you the right to vote for the person you want representing you in the US Senate.
Perhaps this can be seen as an illustration of why the more America learns about the Tea Party, the less popular it becomes.
Conservative Republicans dominate the Tea Party movement, marking both its strengths in establishing a unified political message – and its challenges in attracting broader support.
Twenty-seven percent of Americans support the Tea Party, this ABC News/Washington Post poll finds, including 17 percent who back it “strongly” and just 2 percent who say they’re active participants. Its backers overwhelmingly reject the Obama administration, and many voice dissatisfaction with Washington, favor smaller government and express economic anxiety.
While that reflects a motivated political base, the movement’s broader appeal is in question. Nearly as many Americans oppose the Tea Party as support it. More say they like it less, rather than more, as they hear more about it. Far more are tuning it out than are highly interested. And association with the Tea Party may cost congressional candidates more votes than it attracts, particularly among better-educated Americans, whose election turnout tends to be high.
ABC News
29 Apr
Still, for President Obama and his party, there are some positive signs in the poll. The public trusts Democrats more than Republicans to handle the major problems facing the country by a double-digit margin, giving Democrats a bigger lead than they held two months ago, when Congress was engaged in the long endgame over divisive health-care legislation. A majority continues to see Obama as “just about right” ideologically, despite repeated GOP efforts to define the president as outside the mainstream.
Those polled also say they trust Obama over Republicans in Congress to deal with the economy, health care and, by a large margin, financial regulatory reform. And the president continues to get positive marks on his overall job performance, with, for the first time since the fall, a majority of independents approving. Disaffection among independents with Obama’s policies has been one of the major shifts in public opinion over the past year, making this small movement one to monitor over the coming months.
These shifts may be modest, but they come at a time when Obama and his fellow Democrats have been on the offensive, after months of playing defense on health care. The debate over financial reform in the Senate has given Democrats the opportunity to paint the opposition as defenders of Wall Street and unpopular financial institutions, while the passage of the health-care law has freed the White House from a burdensome issue that had taken a significant toll on the president. …
While the budget deficit may be a weak point for Obama, his strategists have a ready pushback: Nearly three times as many Americans blame former president George W. Bush for the size of the shortfall as point the finger at Obama. Public perceptions on the state of the economy are roughly the same, with 59 percent blaming Bush for continued weakness and 25 percent finding Obama more culpable. Even about three in 10 Republicans blame Bush more than Obama for the deficit and the state of the economy. …
Obama’s best marks continue to come on foreign policy, where 56 percent say they approve of his handling of the war in Afghanistan. This is his strongest rating on the matter since his major review of U.S. war policy, which resulted in his December decision to further increase troop levels there.
Washington Post
27 Apr
PORTLAND, Ore. — The docks are humming again at this sprawling Pacific port, with clouds of golden dust billowing off the piles of grain spilling into the bellies of giant tankers.
“Things are looking up,” said Dan Broadie, a longshoreman. No longer killing time at the union hall while waiting for work, instead he is guiding a mechanized spout pouring 44,000 tons of wheat into the Arion SB, bound for the Philippines.
At malls from New Jersey to California, shoppers are snapping up electronics and furniture, as fears of joblessness yield to exuberance over rising stock prices. Tractor trailers and railroad cars haul swelling quantities of goods through transportation corridors, generating paychecks for truckers and repair crews.
On the factory floor, production is expanding, a point underscored by government data released Friday showing a hefty increase in March for orders of long-lasting manufactured items. In apartment towers and on cul-de-sacs, sales of new homes surged in March, climbing by 27 percent, amplifying hopes that a wrenching real estate disaster may finally be releasing its grip on the national economy.
New York Times
And from the Wall Street Journal, more good news:
U.S. Firms Raise Hiring on Optimism Over Recovery
WASHINGTON — U.S. companies expect to hire more and fire less as they become more confident that the economy will continue to recover in 2010, a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics shows.
The share of companies increasing payrolls rose to 22% from 13% in January, the survey of 68 NABE members conducted between Mar. 25 and Apr. 10 showed. The poll reflects first-quarter 2010 results and the near-term outlook.
“NABE’s April 2010 industry survey confirms that the U.S. recovery from the Great Recession continues, with business conditions improving,” said William Strauss of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
27 Apr
ABC News Poll: Two-Thirds Back Financial Reform
Two-thirds of Americans support stricter federal regulation of banks and other financial institutions, and by a double-digit margin the public trusts President Obama above the Republicans in Congress to handle the issue – a caution flag for the GOP in an election year.
The public supports reform overall by 65-31 percent, a broad margin that’s been steady since mid-winter, and favors Obama over the Republicans in trust to handle it by 52-35 percent, a 17-point advantage for the president in this new ABC News/Washington Post poll.
ABC News
Poll Results
23 Apr
Earlier this year, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court handed down the Citizens United decision wiping out restrictions on corporate expenditures in American elections — a decision that could open up the door to foreign money flowing into campaigns in this country. As it turns out, according to a Quinnipiac poll out today, voters are not at all happy with the decision.
Voters disapprove 79 – 14 percent of the Supreme Court’s January ruling removing limits on the amount corporations and unions could spend attacking or boosting political candidates, with consistently strong opposition across the political spectrum.
These numbers largely jibe with data released earlier this year by Pew, which found 68 percent of Americans disapproving of the decision, while just 17 percent approved. With margins like these, it is not out of the realm of possibility that a constitutional amendment seeking to overturn the decision is out of the question.
But looking more broadly, it is interesting to see the damage the decision has inflicted on the Court. Just last summer, Quinnipiac found the Supreme Court to have a +40 net approval rating, with 62 percent of the country rating the high court positively and just 22 percent rating it negatively. Today, however, the Court’s rating has fallen dramatically to just +16 (49 percent approve / 33 percent disapprove) — a statistically significant fall for the institution. It turns out that conservative judicial activism isn’t actually popular with Americans.
MyDD
22 Apr
Looking a bit better.
Gallup
Also, of the new report on the auto industry, Larry Summers notes:
What a difference a year makes. Just about a year ago, the American auto industry was on the brink of collapse. Today, General Motors announced that it has repaid its $6.7 billion loan to the U.S. government in full five years ahead of schedule, and Chrysler announced that, after taking one-time charges last year associated with its restructuring, it produced an operating profit in the first quarter of 2010 for the first time since the economic crisis began. The prospect of a faster than anticipated exit from government involvement and a return of most of the taxpayers’ investment in these companies has materially improved.
This turnaround wasn’t an accident of history. It was the result of considered and politically difficult decisions made by President Obama to provide GM and Chrysler – and indeed the auto industry – a lifeline, if they could demonstrate the will to reshape their businesses and chart a path toward long-term viability without ongoing government assistance.
The conclusion I found most striking: In 2008, the American auto industry lost over 400,000 jobs and analysts estimated that at least 1 million more jobs could have been lost had GM and Chrysler liquidated. That didn’t happen. Instead, over the past nine months since GM and Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy, the industry has actually added 45,000 jobs – the strongest pace of job growth in the auto industry in nearly a decade.
Sure, there’s a lot of catching up to do, but it’s very good news.
20 Apr
The substantial uptick in satisfaction among Democrats follows the House’s passage of the new healthcare bill on March 21 and President Obama’s signing the bill into law on March 23 (Obama signed the revised healthcare bill on March 30). Democrats’ satisfaction had dropped from readings in the mid-40% range last fall to 29% in early March. By the time of Gallup’s March 26-28 survey this year, Democrats’ satisfaction had begun to move back up; it has recovered to the current 49% in Gallup’s April 8-11 survey.
Gallup
